RGA Memo: 2016 Gubernatorial Election Results

MEMO
From: Paul Bennecke, RGA Executive Director
To: Interested Parties
RE: 2016 Gubernatorial Election Results: Republicans Achieve What Hasn’t Been Done In 94 Years
Date: 11/9/2016

2016 RESULTS: REPUBLICANS CEMENT THEIR DOMINANCE OF GOVERNORSHIPS

After the RGA’s successful 2014 results, Republicans entered 2016 with 31 Governors to the Democrat’s 18. With 12 gubernatorial elections this year, the RGA was tasked with defending two incumbents in North Carolina and Utah, and two open seats in North Dakota and Indiana. Democrats were faced with defending three incumbents in Montana, Washington and Oregon, and five open seats in Delaware, Missouri, New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia. The RGA went on offense early in the year, investing significant resources in six gubernatorial elections: Vermont, New Hampshire, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and North Carolina. Republicans have won four of those six governorships so far, with North Carolina still listed as too close to call.

As the RGA entered Election Day, internal polling showed Republicans leading or effectively tied in those six gubernatorial races. 2016 gubernatorial elections were always a unique opportunity for Republicans to gain seats on Election Day. While it was a very successful night for Republicans at all levels, including Donald Trump winning the White House and both Houses of Congress retaining majorities, Republican governors have added a net gain of at least 2 seats, and that number could increase to a net gain of 3. Republicans will hold at least 33 governorships in 2017, something that hasn’t happened in 94 years. TIME Magazine noted that even with a large influx of cash from Democratic groups, Republicans “cemented their dominance of the nation’s governors’ mansions in elections Tuesday.”

VERMONT

The Vermont governor’s race was an election no one expected the GOP to be competitive in at the beginning of 2016. After Lt. Gov. Phil Scott won the gubernatorial primary on August 9, the RGA immediately went up on television August 10, and stayed on TV through Election Day. The first six weeks made the crucial difference, as the RGA ran positive TV ads highlighting Scott’s record as a pragmatic leader. When the Democrats finally decided to jump in, the race had already been defined on our terms. Even in a deep blue state, trying to catch up is a hard task. All the way until Election Day, the RGA ran positive TV ads for Phil Scott, while also defining Sue Minter, running dual track messages at the same time. On top of our TV advertisement strategy, the RGA also ran a targeted direct mail and digital effort, concentrating on independent swing voters and soft Democrats. Without a doubt, the quality of a candidate matters, even more so in a deep blue state like Vermont. Phil Scott proved that he was ready to lead, and RGA was thrilled to help get him across the finish line.

Days before Election Day, many admitted Phil Scott might get a plurality, but they believed he would likely not reach 50%, thereby handing the election to the Democratic legislature to decide. But instead, Phil Scott easily won the governor’s office, defeating Democrat Sue Minter by nearly 10 points, 53%-44%.

The RGA spent over $3 million to elect Phil Scott as governor, including 13 statewide TV ads, 2 statewide radio ads, 500,000 pieces of direct mail, and a targeted digital campaign which had over 5 million impressions.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

While the New Hampshire primary was the final gubernatorial primary in the country on September 13, the RGA always believed that we could win. We proved that by being the first political organization in the country to reserve a television ad buy in the last six weeks of the election, and did so in April. By the time Chris Sununu was our nominee, the U.S. Senate and Presidential races were already in full swing, TV rates had escalated to unprecedented levels, and so the RGA had to answer the question: How do we spend our resources efficiently to impact the race and help Chris Sununu cross the finish line?

Rather than using our remaining resources to increase TV impressions in an expensive and cluttered market, the RGA decided to go into New Hampshire with a highly targeted, relentless digital and mail program in the final five weeks, delivering over 22 million digital impressions and 2 million direct mail pieces. Specific universes were identified, and different messages were sent to different segments. While it’s true the Democrats outspent the RGA on broadcast TV, Democrats were outmaneuvered via digital and direct mail, and didn’t even know it. Of the over $5.5 million the RGA spent in New Hampshire, one-third was spent on digital and direct mail, targeting key voting groups. Sununu became the first GOP Governor-Elect of New Hampshire in more than a decade. As the RGA has done in other states, and in other years, it put a specific plan of action into place that supplemented normal TV activity. For five weeks, we had a 1-on-1 conversation with targeted voters via their mobile phones, tablets & laptops, and their mailboxes (on top of the television advertisements we were also running).

Democrats outspent the RGA 2-1 on broadcast television, but the RGA spent considerably more on cable, in order to reach those voting groups that we were also targeting via direct mail and digital. As a result, Sununu defeated Democrat Colin Van Ostern 49%-46%.

The RGA spent over $5.5 million in the effort to elect Chris Sununu as governor, including a multi-million dollar TV statewide ad campaign, over 2 million pieces of direct mail, and a targeted digital ad campaign which had over 22 million impressions. The RGA targeted Van Ostern in 4 TV ads, highlighting his record as a Big Government liberal favoring the Washington way, not the New Hampshire way.

MISSOURI

Early in 2016, Democrats consolidated behind Attorney General Chris Koster, giving him the opportunity to build up a $10 million war chest. At the same time, four Republicans were running in a very competitive gubernatorial primary that occurred late in the year on August 2.

One week before the gubernatorial primary, the Democratic Governors Association spent $1 million on television attacking Eric Greitens in an attempt to damage him politically, hoping it would lead to him losing the primary – but it failed. Koster went up on television the day of the primary, thinking his $10 million war chest would put the race out of reach for any Republican nominee.

On August 3, the RGA immediately went up on TV in Missouri, matching Chris Koster’s ad buy, and targeting him as a self-serving politician and political opportunist. The RGA then began providing direct contributions to the Greitens campaign, which totaled over $13 million when all was said and done.

This was a state where the RGA viewed field operations, GOTV and a rich data mining operation were vitally important, and helped fund these campaign efforts. Chris Koster had every early advantage in this race. But true to form, a Navy SEAL always finds a way to complete the mission. The RGA was proud to partner with the Greitens campaign and eliminate Koster’s $10 million war chest advantage. Greitens soundly defeated Koster 51%-45%.

The RGA spent over $13.5 million on the effort to elect Eric Greitens as governor, including $13 million in direct donations to his campaign, a statewide TV ad campaign, and a targeted digital ad campaign. The RGA TV ad targeted Democrat Chris Koster as just another self-serving politician who puts himself first.

INDIANA

After his selection as the GOP gubernatorial nominee after Governor Mike Pence was chosen as the Vice Presidential Nominee, Eric Holcomb had less than 100 days to run in a race that Democrat John Gregg had been running for five years.

The RGA made an early decision in January 2016, first through the Pence campaign and ultimately through the Holcomb campaign, to help design and fund a robust field program that knocked on over 1.7 million doors and made 5.6 million volunteer phone calls.
Within 24 hours of Eric Holcomb being selected as the nominee, the RGA was on TV defining Democrat John Gregg while Holcomb built his campaign’s infrastructure and fundraising operation. Once that infrastructure was in place, due to cost efficiency, the RGA began making direct contributions to Holcomb’s campaign for TV ad blitzes and message definition.
When Labor Unions pumped several million dollars late into the race in support of John Gregg, the RGA stepped up and matched them and helped Holcomb defeat Gregg 51%-45%.

The RGA spent over $10 million on the effort to elect Eric Holcomb as governor, including $6.75 million in contributions directly to his campaign, a multi-million dollar TV ad campaign statewide, 2.5 million pieces of direct mail, and a targeted digital ad campaign which had over 10 million impressions. The RGA ran 4 TV ads targeting Democrat John Gregg as a wasteful spending, tax loving former lobbyist who chose Hillary over Hoosiers.

UTAH

Governor Gary Herbert won a commanding re-election victory over Democratic opponent Mike Weinholtz, 69% to 29%. Over the past six years in office, Governor Herbert built a reputation as a pro-jobs governor focused on positioning Utah for success now and in the future, guiding Utah to over 250,000 new jobs, historic low unemployment, and key investments in education. The RGA contributed $350,000 directly to Governor Herbert’s 2016 campaign.

NORTH DAKOTA

In North Dakota, Republican Doug Burgum easily won election in a resounding victory, defeating Democratic opponent Marvin Nelson by 57 points, 76% to 19%. The DGA publicly tried to recruit U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp to run for the open seat, but she took a pass. As an innovator, leader, and high-tech businessman, Burgum ran as a new leader for a changing economy, and operated a campaign based on reinventing state government, smart budgeting, and ensuring taxpayers are treated as the customers they are. The RGA invested $100,000 to support Burgum in the general election, contributing directly to his campaign.

CONCLUSION

The one common theme in all of these victories was having the best candidate in the race. Whether it was in a traditionally red state like North Dakota, or a deep blue state like Vermont, or even a state that hadn’t elected a GOP governor in 14 years like New Hampshire, RGA invested in these races because we had superior candidates.

The RGA’s decision to play early, and even bigger in the closing days, ensured our candidates would get their message to the voters. Committing major portions of our budget to run highly targeted and sophisticated digital efforts allowed RGA to maximize efficiency, talk to specific voters, and do it under the radar.

Placing early base TV buys down before other races dominated the markets or utilizing individual state laws in places like Indiana and Missouri to get candidate rates saved RGA millions of dollars and gave us a distinct advantage over other competing outside groups when they spent more “TV dollars” than we did.

As a result, America now has more Republican Governors than at any time since 1922.