Republican Knute Buehler’s surging campaign has made the Oregon governor’s race a potential “upset” in the making, according to the latest Larry Sabato Crystal Ball rankings. Just this morning, they moved the Oregon governor’s race in the GOP direction, from ‘Likely’ to ‘Leans’ Democrat. Last week, the Cook Political Report also moved the Oregon governor’s race in the GOP direction, reflecting the growing national consensus that incumbent Democrat Governor Kate Brown is vulnerable and at risk of losing re-election this November.
Crystal Ball writes that they now see “more potential for a GOP upset” in the deep-blue state of Oregon, thanks to Kate Brown’s “middling approval ratings” and Knute Buehler’s strong campaign.
“…the polling is close enough that an upset is possible. We’re moving Oregon from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic,” Crystal Ball concludes.